Tuesday, 27 June 2017
social skills
zephyr, do not call zakaj a shill, he's posting in good faith and that's all that is asked here !
when you (zephyr) actually make some money let us know ! :o)
any more posting by you with gratuitously offensive name calling will be removed !
as with any investment advice, you make your own choices and take the consequences which can be positive or negative !
xyz, i don't think you should mention you have done well as there are nasty people scouring the web for indications of people with cryptovalue and targeting them in real life and also by hacking !
a good rule in life is if you have money is to always appear broke !
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Zakaj insulted me first. He is going around and marketing his coin to poor, desperate "NEETs" on image boards. He has no sense of ethical responsibility or empathy.
ReplyDeleteIf you want a return of investment, then basic logic says there are better options than Decred. You want to invest in a coin when it is young and has potential, meaning larger multiplier as it appreciates in value.
When I first explained to you the fallacy of your "I will buy 1million Aircoin and just wait until each Aircoin is worth $1" you didn't even understand the concepts of market capitalization, total vs circulating supply, etc.
ReplyDeleteThe logic of "X is young, so it's best to invest in it because Y is already too big to grow" is fallacious for many reasons.
It's as absurd as saying "It's pointless to buy Amazon stocks, it's better to buy HappyDuckShop's stocks because it's still a young company". Yeah, no. It depends on what HappyDuckShop does, what are its potential for growth. Just because something is small/young it doesn't mean it's good to invest in it. This is obvious.
Let's analyze the logic step by step, by presuppositions.
Presupposition 1: "Decred is already too big to grow."
The total market cap of Decred as of the time of writing this is 180 million.
The total market cap of all crypto-currencies is 100 billion, give or take 5 billion.
What are the questions to be asked here?
1) Is Decred's valuation high, compared to other coins?
Take "Dogecoin" for example. It's a joke coin, it was created as a joke, and has a 300 million market cap.
If you look here: http://coinmarketcap.com/ and check which coins have much higher market caps than Decred, and then when you realize what Decred actually does (solve one of Bitcoin's major flaws): you see the market has not yet realized its true value.
When the market realizes Decred's worth, it will be located somewhere around NEM/DASH; which will make its market cap 1.5 billion.
So, to an experienced eye that can judge where Decred should really be positioned considering the tech and the team behind it, it's easy to see it should be valued at least 10x higher than it is now.
2) What about the total market cap of 100 billion for crypto, isn't that a bit overblown?
No, far from it:
Billionaire Michael Novogratz says cryptocurrencies could be worth north of $5 trillion in five years “The Nasdaq got to $5.4 trillion in 1999, why couldn’t it be as big?” the former hedge fund manager said in an interview, referring the Nasdaq Composite Index. “There’s so much human capital and real money being poured into the space and we’re at the takeoff point.”
And that is a multiplier of 50 from where we are currently.
So not only that to any trained, experienced eye, a growth of 10-fold for Decred is very plausible, but a 50-fold growth for the total of crypto is equally plausible.
To a new person who is impatient after a few weeks of seeing the price stagnate, such scenario is unimaginable.
The reason is that you haven't seen things that people early in the scene have seen. When I first started with Bitcon it was $2. Now it's $2500+
When Bitcoin was $100, people kept saying "it's too big to grow now, it's pointless to invest at this point".
Too big relative to what?
Actually if crypto- reaches widespread adoption, 1 bitcoin could be worth as much as hundred thousand USD:
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/31/bitcoin-price-forecast-hit-100000-in-10-years.html
"Bitcoin could hit $100,000 in 10 years, says the analyst who correctly called its $2,000 price"
---
Cont'd
DeletePresupposition 2: "It's better to invest in something that is young and not in something already old/established"
Many of these "young" projects are stillborn and they will die quickly. What really matters now is to invest in quality tech and mine it / hold it for the long term.
As explained above, the total market cap of crypto- could reach 5 trillion, that is multiplier 50 from what it is now, and if Decred really has potential to climb 20 places on market cap top list, that would ultimately mean multiplier 500 of its current value in a few years.
If this sounds incredible or impossible, remember Bitcoin multiplied by 1000 just in the time I've been into this... some people started earlier than me and saw it grow by 10.000x
Basically your mistake is in taking a myopic view of short-term gains. I made the same mistake as you're making now, searching for 1000 coins to find the next "pump and dump" --- I lost money in the process.
Then I started again with a different approach, one that is based on 1)research; 2) searching for projects that solve fundamental problems with a solid development team and a proven solution (like Decred, and partially also BlockNet, which aims to be a bridge between different blockchains); 3) holding for the longer term (plus mining/staking).
This approach has proven to be very lucrative.
I write this more for Andrew and Jason if they're reading it, because I know you're too stubborn to listen...
To conclude, I recommend looking at the big picture, that is why I talk about Decred even to people with little to no cash... the big picture is, as hedge fund manager/billionaire Novogratz says, a 5 trillion market cap on all crypto. This is coming from someone with massive experience in the world of finance, not from my own head.
ReplyDeleteNow if the whole cake will be worth 5 trillion, all you need to do (IF you're interested in investing only) - determine which part of the cake is likely to keep or increase the portion it has in the whole cake. I think Decred will be a top 10 coin (it's in 31th position now) and I have a good reason to believe it (Bitcoin's segwit fiasco-> lack of governance -> "coin voting" is the solution, even admitted by Bitcoin core devs). - So holding to Decred now could bring massive gains in the future, even as much as 500x in the long term. If this sounds crazy/insane is just because you haven't been into Bitcoin since $2 and seen it grow by factor 1000. This field is growing at an insane pace.
What people who want a "quick buck" don't see is that the whole field will grow, so the total market cap, cumulative, of all blockchains, will grow massively; we're at the beginning of adoption now.
The government of China recently announced it will create its own crypto-currency. Putin met with Ethereum's founder. (OK, I'm skeptical about Ethereum but that is another matter, I can write about that too if someone is interested.) Things are becoming serious.
So thinking of making a quick return is just due to lack of vision.
Banks will be replaced by crypto-currencies; Bitcoin decentralizes banking. Decred goes further than that, and decentralizes banking AND central banking.
Sorry for the wall of text! I hope this helps anyone who reads it.
Bitcoin is amazing and it's weakness is also its strength: lack of a single governing body.
ReplyDeleteEthereum is like a dictatorship; a few people decide everything.
Decred is more like a Republic. It has a constitution and stakeholders can vote on what changes/updates/upgrades the programmers should work on in the future.
Each has its pros and cons.
Bitcoin --- the "anarchic" model is good because basically, nobody can fuck it up. If there is nobody to rule, there is nobody to make a mistake. The CON of this model however is that it can create situations where nothing moves forward, an impasse where the miners/programmers arrive at a standstill/deadlock like it's happening now, and nobody can agree what technological solution to implement (for instance to the current problems of slow transaction speeds, high fees, etc).
Ethereum has a "benevolent dictator" kind of governance. It can be good in some cases (very fast execution, updates) --- but it also centralizes power in a single person --- I don't think I don't even need to explain why this is potentially bad... Yes, so far this dictator has been "benevolent" - but the very idea that so much power is concentrated in a single individual is a major flaw I think.
Then you have Decred (stakeholder voting). Power is not centralized in a single or a few individuals, and at the same time, upgrades/tech updates are executed quickly because of coin voting. It has the best of both worlds / both systems.
Governance is an extremely important aspect of cryptocurrencies, even most people in the field don't realize it yet.
Actually, the most revolutionary aspect of the blockchain is NOT the creation of a crypto-currency, but the creation of the DAO (Decentralized Autonomous Organization) - which will revolutionize economy as it's an alternative to the "Corporation" as we know it! Decred is the best "incarnation" of a DAO that we currently have.
Zakaj, I understand everything you say. We discussed this over email.
ReplyDeleteMy issue with you involves your conflict of interests, which you have disclosed in the past privately: You are not interested in accumulating wealth but promoting the tech and espousing the benefits of the ideology. While this is fine, in and of itself, my issue with how you go on imageboards giving grandiose promises to desperate people to invest in Decred. You have admitted over email to me, personally, that there are better options to gain money both long- and short-term compared to Decred, regardless of their lack of technological advancement. You are not saying this now because you want to save face.
Listen, you are a good speaker and such, and are skilled in making me out to be the "bad one". However, you are not fully disclosing certain things.
You claimed Decred will go to .1 BTC by the end of the year. This is only 2-3x return of investment, which is not really that much, and you said you are more doubtful it will go up more (75% certainty). You told me this AFTER I invested in Decred, not before where it could have been helpful.
Regardless, my point is this, even if Decred solves a major issue of Bitcoin, there is the element of mass marketing. For example, Bancor (BNT) was recently marketed in Israel, and I believe it will grow in the future regardless of being less democratic and evolving by community consensus the way Decred does. Point is, since it is cheap right now, one can buy more and hoard it for long, mid, or short term as it goes up in value.
I agree with your criticism of Ethereum, but you are being idealistic in thinking the world operates towards "greater justice". Like I've said, most people (incl. me) are in this for the money, not false promises of a better world.
"my issue with how"
Deletemy issue is how*
"You claimed Decred will go to .1 BTC by the end of the year. This is only 2-3x return of investment"
DeleteIt will definitely go to .1, but I can't when it will happen, I don't have a crystal ball.
As for 2x, 3x ...
0.01424650 BTC ---> to 0.1 BTC is closer to 10x, not 2x/3x
You focus too much on marketing. This bullshit is not important in the long term. How much marketing did Bitcoin have? Zero. It grew because the tech was good.
The point is that you have to be a bit visionary/idealistic to make money. The two do not exclude each other. Often people who are very realistic will make less than people who are idealistic/visionary!
As I said, think about the total market cap in 1, 2 years, when there's more widespread adoption. It could be 5 trillion or more.
(And I'm not in this just for the tech/ideals, obviously I'm also in it for the money! These don't have to exclude each other. You can make money while promoting something genuinely good, and still retain your idealism and help others in the process. This is what I'm trying to do here and elsewhere.)
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteBitcoin grew because of the blackmarket -- its anonymity and decentralization were not the key points to most druggies, more like the effect of just having transactions in black market undetected. People don't really care about the tech for the same reasons you do.
DeleteAlso let me respond to a quote of yours:
""The point is that you have to be a bit visionary/idealistic to make money... (And I'm not in this just for the tech/ideals, obviously I'm also in it for the money! These don't have to exclude each other. You can make money while promoting something genuinely good, and still retain your idealism and help others in the process. This is what I'm trying to do here and elsewhere.)""
Contradicts what you told me over email.
Some things I said in the E-mail were reactions to your constant begging for Bitcoin. Faced with a greedy person who is only focusing on getting rich overnight, one may be excused of saying such things as "fuck money, who cares about your obsession with getting rich - focus on the tech instead!" - It's all context and nuance.
DeleteOK, again I'm done with this thread.
Forgot this: "Bitcoin grew because of the blackmarket -- its anonymity and decentralization were not the key points to most druggies"
DeleteCan't you see that its ANONYMITY (or rather, PSEUDONYMITY to be exact) and its DECENTRALIZATION (no escrow/third party) ARE EXACTLY the reason why it was used on the deepweb AND EXACTLY what the druggies cared about? (not wanting to get caught? not wanting to have records of transaction on some bank?)
Use reason.
No, you made it clear to me over email your number one concern is to promote the technology and reaping ROI is secondary. Also,
Delete"Some things I said in the E-mail were reactions to your constant begging for Bitcoin."
You exaggerate. I only asked for BTC a few times near the end because DCR PoS mining holds the money you use to purchase tickets in its reserves. I can't even withdraw it until it's done mining and stake voting. I am immediately exchanging my DCR for another coin. I already exchanged half, and plan to exchange the other half (1650 USD) elsewhere.
"Use reason."
You missed my point.
Asked for a loan of BTC until I get paid back with the arduous, clunky PoS mining of DCR. I do not want the value of Bancor (BNT) to go up before I get my DCR back and exchange it BNT. I was never asking for BTC, just a quick loan because DCR is clunky and takes forever to give back my tokens with its subsidy. Hell, I would just get it back w/o the subsidy if I could... I hope BNT doesn't go up because this is time sensitive.
DeleteLol, NVM! I don't need the loan now! I just got back the DCR, believe it or not! I am immediately exchanging it for BNT! OMG! THis is great
DeleteNow the wallet won't let me send it...
Delete" I am immediately exchanging it for BNT! OMG! THis is great"
DeleteExchanging pure gold for Ponzi horse manure!
Well done, mate.
My point is, as long as it grows up in value and I get a huge ROI, it doesn't matter what it is.
DeleteYou missed my point about how Bitcoin was used in the deep web because of being undetected. It does not necessarily mean the people using it understood blockchains, pseudonimity, and decentralization.
DeleteMy overall point to you is that centralization or regulation are possible through exploiting the ignorance of individuals, hence why the smart contract system of ethereum will win in the end. It will also come to be tied to the petrodollar system, which gives the current USD its value.
ethereun connected to bilur***
DeleteBut yeah, you also think we can transition to alternative energy, which is folly. Our economy is largely petroleum-based, we really can't move beyond it as sad as it is, and even if we could, many industries would resist.
https://www.sciencealert.com/a-chinese-province-just-ran-on-100-renewable-energy-for-7-days
DeleteIt's just a matter of time.
Again: lack of vision!
^^ I need to read the actual journal article on that and spend significant time writing a response. However, I recommend looking over some people's responses on Quora, many of which are scholars. We cannot really abandon our need on oil anytime soon.
DeleteI think you are being unrealistic. Vision should not be divorced from the real-world, unless for artistic purposes.
i'm definitely listening and learning
ReplyDeletei remember when bitcoin was low, i would've invested some if i had the money
Deletei was seven years old when the first ipod released, i was thinking it was a good idea to invest then
If you could travel back into the past or see the future, then you would be a rich man.
DeleteI remember reading CIA used to go to this woman who claimed to see into the future. It's bullshit, and if she could really see into the future, she would be able to accumulate billions of dollars by investing in the right stuff, lol.
my crazy aunt asked me if i had psychic powers
Deletenah i so remember when bitcoin was low and i would've bought some if i knew how to ! apple too, i was too young then. i guess i can have a good eye for outcomes just not necessarily seeing the definite future